AI Layoffs May Reduce Budget, but Do Not Deliver ROI - Gartner
Wednesday, May 6, 2026
Among organisations piloting or deploying autonomous business capabilities, approximately 80% report workforce reductions, according to a survey by Gartner, a business and technology insights company. However, those reductions do not appear to translate into return on investment (ROI).
The survey found that workforce reduction rates were nearly equal among respondents reporting higher ROI from autonomous technologies and those experiencing only modest gains or negative outcomes. Contd
Gartner surveyed 350 global business executives in the third quarter of 2025 to understand the current state of autonomous business at enterprises. Qualifying organisations reported enterprisewide annual revenue of at least USD 1 billion or equivalent, and they had been piloting or had already deployed at least one of the following: AI agents, intelligent automation or autonomous technologies.
Using technologies such as AI agents, intelligent automation, RPA, digital twins and tokenised assets, autonomous business will move organisations from simple augmentation and automation to true autonomy, where both machines and people have more autonomy. This does not mean humanless business; rather, it means human-amplified business.
“Many CEOs turn to layoffs to demonstrate quick AI returns; however, this disposition is misplaced,” said Helen Poitevin, Distinguished VP Analyst at Gartner. “Workforce reductions may create budget room, but they do not create return. Organisations that improve ROI are not those that eliminate the need for people, but those that amplify them by aggressively investing more in skills, roles and operating models that allow humans to guide and scale autonomous systems.”
Long Term - Autonomous Business Will Create More Work for Humans
Autonomous business will continue to increase with the growing adoption of AI agents. Gartner forecasts AI agent software spending will reach USD 206.5 billion in 2026 and USD 376.3 billion in 2027. This is up from USD 86.4 billion in 2025.
Because autonomy will increase for both machines and people, and the need for people will go up, not down, Gartner predicts that autonomous business will be a net-positive job creator by 2028 to 2029, driven by new forms of work that AI cannot absorb.
“Long term, autonomous business will create more work for humans, not less. Lasting structural factors such as demographic decline and high-stakes, trust-dependent consumer moments will ensure human talent remains central to running, governing and scaling autonomous business,” said Poitevin.
